• It has come to our attention that some users may have been "banned" when they tried to change their passwords after the site was hacked due to a glitch in the old vBulletin software. This would have occurred around the end of February and does not apply after the site was converted to Xenforo. If you believe you were affected by this, please contact a staff member or use the Contact us link at the bottom of any forum page.

Will Fine Gael have the Stomach to default on Ireland's debts?


Congalltee

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 10, 2009
Messages
6,211
That Ireland will default at some stage is hardly in doubt save for the wishful thinking of deluded FF'ers. But because the NTMA have already started on 2011, it probably will not happen until the Autumn, by which time the 3 by-elections will have been held, FG will require their TDs to be actually present for votes and stop the informal pairing with Bertie and other FF TDs, and perhaps the grim reaper may also intervened by then - not that I wish this on anyone.

The manner, timing and target of the default could be vital. If we wait to the bitter end, having flogged the semi-states for a song, we will be consigned to economic stagnation for a decade. Also because no one lend to us, we will need to have something resembling a credible plan to get to a balanced budget (a poxy 3 billion euro cut is simply off-set by higher costs of servicing the national debt).

But my question is whether Fine Gael would have the stomach to undertake a clinical default or will they just sit it out to the end?
Would dishonouring debts - particularly ECB ones - be too much for Fine Gael?
Will they too adopt the FF policy of no bondholder left behind?
How will they do the above with Labour in power with them?
 

the_rebubblican

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 24, 2010
Messages
344
Can we really afford to pay the bondholders? FG will inevitably have to take tougher decisions than the yellow skinned FF elite. The night of the guarantee Cowen and Lenihan opted for the big brush that was just another means of kicking the can down the road. Desperately trying to avoid real governance and decisions that would upset some of the elite and vested interests that helped pump the delusion of the celtic tiger years the blanket guarantee was hit and hope that the markets would be satiated. Whatever combination of parties gets in some real dirty choices will have to be made and some incubated sectors will have to feel the chill wind that 450,000 others have felt. Lenihan soothing voice hides a man whose goal is to mask national interest with party interest while Cowen just wants the most honourable way out. Unfortunately Cowen doesn't realise that his party has no honour, no integrity and no mandate anymore...
 

CookieMonster

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 19, 2005
Messages
34,801
No. FG have balls for anything? You're having a giraffe!
 

Cassandra Syndrome

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 23, 2009
Messages
16,908
Fine Gael would sacrifice their first born for the sake of Europe, the EU and the Euro. Most of our debt is from the Eurozone, so there is more of a chance of Wayne Rooney winning Husband of the Year award as Fine Gael defaulting on our debt.
 

Tomas Mor

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 22, 2010
Messages
10,389
Incoming governments cannot unravel decisions made that easily and contracts entered into. Remember the despicable Haughey on the Anglo Irish Agreement of 1985- he opposed it in opposion and worked it in gov after 1987. You cannot unscramble an egg.
 

jpc

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 14, 2007
Messages
4,339
Lets be real.
FF are pushing the day of reckoning out to beyond their departure.
FG/Lab are not going to have any other choice that I can see
The money isn't and won't be there to service the debt.
 

MPB

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 27, 2009
Messages
4,465
Incoming governments cannot unravel decisions made that easily and contracts entered into. Remember the despicable Haughey on the Anglo Irish Agreement of 1985- he opposed it in opposion and worked it in gov after 1987. You cannot unscramble an egg.
That is a cop out. These decisions were passed by the dail and can be unwound by the dail. The time has come to unwind the mess FF have made in Anglo. They start by moving the Anglo customer deposits to guaranteed Banks backed by performing loans, property assets and NAMA bonds.

The corporate deposits lodged before the guarantee should be heavily discounted at say 10c in the Euro and the ECB and Central Bank deposits should be treated exactly the same as bondholders and should have to make the most of what is left.

The majority of money in Anglo is ECB and Central Bank money put in after the guarantee. This money was put in when it was obvious that the Bank was run by a bunch of cowboy Bankers, possibly in a criminal manner.

FG are going to have to do something they have not had the opportunity to do for almost 100 years, stand up for their country and boot out FF politicians and cronies from all state and semi state positions once and for all.

They will get one opportunity and it is vital that they take it.
 

Congalltee

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 10, 2009
Messages
6,211
Fine Gael would sacrifice their first born for the sake of Europe, the EU and the Euro. Most of our debt is from the Eurozone, so there is more of a chance of Wayne Rooney winning Husband of the Year award as Fine Gael defaulting on our debt.
Fine Gael have not been in power much during my lifetime (or most peoples), but should we not give them the benefit of the doubt,
that they will go for an orderly default on the debts aquired by reason of the banks,
that like the 4 year plan, they will not be bound by decision of this governement,
that they will in fact put in place political reforms to ensure that this can never happend again (ie smaller Dail, elected by one constituency, more accounatbility of civil servants and politicians, mandatory balanced budgets etc).

They will default early - won't they?
 

Desperate Dan

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 26, 2010
Messages
5,741
Make Defaulting on the Debt an election issue. Get Gilmore Kenny and Cowan to stand up.
and declare where they stand.
 

paulp

Well-known member
Joined
May 5, 2007
Messages
7,324
I think the bould Leo would be on for burning bond holders or defaulting
 

petrapig

Member
Joined
Sep 24, 2010
Messages
37
We dont have any choice , those decisions will be made in Frankfurt
 

petrapig

Member
Joined
Sep 24, 2010
Messages
37
the bbond holders who had no default insurannce should never have been guarrented, lenny is a dope
 

dent

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 2, 2007
Messages
5,462
Fine Gael would sacrifice their first born for the sake of Europe, the EU and the Euro. Most of our debt is from the Eurozone, so there is more of a chance of Wayne Rooney winning Husband of the Year award as Fine Gael defaulting on our debt.
I would agree with you, however, it is 100% certain that we will have to default in 2-3 years time under the FF plan, so FG/Lab's options are

1. Take the bailout and all the pain over the next 3 years, and default anyway, and then have lots more pain, by which time they would be banished at the following GE.

or

2. Default immediately, suffer the pain but have a steady improvement in 3 years.
 

dent

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 2, 2007
Messages
5,462
Make Defaulting on the Debt an election issue. Get Gilmore Kenny and Cowan to stand up. and declare where they stand.
+1000. It is the only issue now.

Plus, if the deal is as crap as has been suggested, FG/Lab have to come out now and say they will not stand by it, when they win the GE.
 

SideysGhost

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 30, 2009
Messages
17,716
Default has been inevitable for at least a year. I wonder when the first politician will acknowledge this stark reality?

In truth, an orderly default on the bank debt really isn't the apocalyptic nightmare that the bankers and their tame politicians would have us believe. Liquidate the insolvent banks, repudiate the Guarantee, close down NAMA, default on all the bank-related debt, rip out all the pork and corruption, drive out all the artificial supports for artificially-high prices across the economy, recreate an environment conducive to small local businesses being able to trade profitably, get people back to work, balance the budget, reassert our independence, job done.

Who gives a f*** what coked-up braying baboons in Wall St and the City think about us if we don't actually need to borrow anything off them?
 

Nonsence & lies

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 13, 2010
Messages
504
I would agree with you, however, it is 100% certain that we will have to default in 2-3 years time under the FF plan, so FG/Lab's options are

1. Take the bailout and all the pain over the next 3 years, and default anyway, and then have lots more pain, by which time they would be banished at the following GE.

or

2. Default immediately, suffer the pain but have a steady improvement in 3 years.
Very true, add to that if they don't default the new coalition will be forced to cut 'old age pensions', 'the croke park agreament' etc.

FF are leaving them to upset 300 thousand old folks, a few thousand overpaid civil servants and 300 thousand public servants all possibly within 18 months. The four year plan was always about the next election not the one coming.

The good old soldiers of destiny won't lick their wounds for long, they'll be laughing at the mess they left to be cleaned up.
 

dent

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 2, 2007
Messages
5,462
Very true, add to that if they don't default the new coalition will be forced to cut 'old age pensions', 'the croke park agreament' etc.

FF are leaving them to upset 300 thousand old folks, a few thousand overpaid civil servants and 300 thousand public servants all possibly within 18 months. The four year plan was always about the next election not the one coming.

The good old soldiers of destiny won't lick their wounds for long, they'll be laughing at the mess they left to be cleaned up.
If none of the "headline" cuts are done in this budget, then you'll be spot on.
 
Top