Will Late Count Transfers Save FF From Complete Disaster?

caulfield-the-yank

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If FF is at 13% of first preference votes, that only tells us what may happen on the first count, or the first few counts.

But the complexion of the next Dail will be determined more by who wins on those sixth or seventh or eighth counts.

And with FF at only 13% of first preferences, even if those voters FF has lost are going to give a first preference to FG, that means that when a FG candidate goes over the quota with a larger-than-ever surplus, and that larger-than-ever surplus is transferred, it is going to include an disproportionately high number of voters who do not traditionally vote for FG, but have simply done so "this time" on their first preference.

If FF "normally" gets around 38%, but only 13% will now admit they will give FF a first preference, that means that about 25% of the electorate is comprised of "normally FF" voters who are going to "do their duty" and give their No. 1 to a "not that bad" FGer (who was going to win anyway), or to a scattering of Independents (most of whom would, and still will, be eliminated on an early count, anyway), or to a "not too crazy" SFer (who will either be eliminated anyway, or else, with these extra votes, simply win on an earlier count than otherwise). Some will also vote for Labour #1.

But after this 25% of the electorate "does its duty" on by cutting FF from the first three or four preferences, what then?

At what point do they decide they have already voted for as many FGers or Indos or SFers or Labour folks as they could stomach? Who then? The FG newbie they never heard of (i.e., the one who really needs those transfers to have a chance)? The FG partisan they have never liked (ditto, if he or she is not yet elected)? The fire-breathing Leftie or other sort of nutter (probably eliminated by that count, anyway)? Or the FF TD they have actually met and who "is not as bad as the rest of that lot"?

The opposition parties will have to hope for a lot of non-transferable papers at that point. Otherwise, look for the residual FF support to emerge on those late counts.

Though it is true in every election, it is more so in this one: the parties in opposition to FF need to field strong "second tier" candidates if they expect their seat totals to come close to reflecting first preferences.
 


johnfás

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FF will be alot higher than 13% of first preference votes. Correct they are going to be decimated at the next election - but predictions of their demise are premature in my opinion.
 

Chrisco

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In Donegal SW in each count O Domhnaill pretty much consistently got ca. 10% of the transfers.

This will be an ABFF election: people will not be 'lending' a 1 to Labour or FG and then reverting to lower orders for FFail.
 

caulfield-the-yank

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In Donegal SW in each count O Domhnaill pretty much consistently got ca. 10% of the transfers.

This will be an ABFF election: people will not be 'lending' a 1 to Labour or FG and then reverting to lower orders for FFail.
Point well taken. Cause for hope among the ABFF.

Another cause for hope, even if the scenario I sketched comes to pass: Even among those who do vote FF#1, there may be a much lower number of transfers to other FF candidates, than seen in previous elections.
 

rockofcashel

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There is also a fallacy about candidates getting elected in lower counts in proportional representation.

In fact, you will find few enough candidates make up any kind of serious ground as counts go on, because outside of "intra party transfers", the transfers do seem to go all over the place.

The problem that FF face, is in how many candidates they pick in the first place in many constituencies.

Also, there seems to be some thinking that FG (or other parties), will have "huge surpluses" to transfer... in many cases they won't

If FG for example get 32/33% of the vote, in a 3 seater, say where I am in Tipp South, then unless they can break that down very evenly, it won't be worth a curse for many of their 2nd candidates.

Assume say FG get 32% in Tipp South. Again assume that sitting candidate Tom Hayes gets 21%, and 2nd candidate Michael Murphy gets 11%.

Hayes will stay in the race when the lower order candidates are being eliminated, soaking up possible early order transfers (which are much better than over quota surpluses), and will probably hit around 25% within 2/3 counts.. at that point, his bundles close up, and he won't have any surplus to transfer at all. That's no good to his running mate, who by that point, will probably be still 10% away from a quota.

FF have been the past masters at "managing votes", something that other parties wouldn't have as much experience of.
 

devnull

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No - RedC looked into transfers in their last poll and found FF are highly repellent.

They got 9% of 2nd preferences (10% when adjusting for DKs), which was much lower than their share of 1st preferences (17%).
I wouldn't attach too much significance to the precise figure of 9%, but it's clear that FF should win very few seats where they don't get the quotas (or very close to them) on the first count.

RedC also investigated the "shy FFer" effect and don't believe it's a significant factor.

For more details see
http://www.redcresearch.ie/documents/SBPElectionPollReport21stNov2010.pdf
 
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making waves

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FF will be alot higher than 13% of first preference votes. Correct they are going to be decimated at the next election - but predictions of their demise are premature in my opinion.
Over the past week or so I have being hearing consistant reports of Willie O'Dea being abused on the doorsteps of Limerick. People are giving it to him in the neck for having a brass neck to dare and knock on their doors. Furthermore he is reported as giving his canvassers a boll*cking for mentioning FF - to paraphrase 'you are canvassing for me - f*ck FF'. Willie is most definately feeling the heat and if O'Dea is feeling the pressure like he is then the vast majority of the FF T.D.'s should be absolutely terrified at their prospects.
 

Man or Mouse

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Over the past week or so I have being hearing consistant reports of Willie O'Dea being abused on the doorsteps of Limerick. People are giving it to him in the neck for having a brass neck to dare and knock on their doors. Furthermore he is reported as giving his canvassers a boll*cking for mentioning FF - to paraphrase 'you are canvassing for me - f*ck FF'. Willie is most definately feeling the heat and if O'Dea is feeling the pressure like he is then the vast majority of the FF T.D.'s should be absolutely terrified at their prospects.
Best news I heard in ages. Let's hope it's true. The one area where the opening post may be well off the mark is the supposition that traditional :lol:FF voters will vote FG. Why is it FG are not rising in the polls? Think about it. As Bird O'Donnel said to the Bull, they'd probably prefer to cut that off with a rusty blade than vote FG.:lol:
 

Skrynesaver

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Dear Mr. Waves, thanks for that, quite cheered me up and I hope the perjuring little b*llix surprises us all and loses his seat.
 

talkies

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Don't people use transfers to keep their least favoured candidate out?

Most people won't just be voting for a new government they'll be voting to keep FF out. Still they might scrape a few seats from transfer votes based on personal/local profiles and just for being notorious (like Willie).
 

westie12

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The impression a lot of people have with PR is that they think that they have to give every candidate a preference.

If you are in the ABFF camp then you should not give a FFer any preference at all.
 

sport02

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Counting on transfers, they might as well be counting how many ice-cubes they plan to put into their final farewell drink, as ther titantic hits the ice-berg.

They are heading for disaster, I'm sure the dozen or little more life jackets will save a few of them, the rest can freeze over in hell for all the Irish people care.
 

rockofcashel

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On the Willie O Dea thing.. and in a wider sense on the issue of FF candidates who have large "personal votes@..

If anything, I would contend that these are the candidates who could be in a lot more trouble than people think.

Personal votes for the likes of O Dea went to him on the basis that he was a Government Minister, and therefore, could get things done. And he could, what with having six paid for staff running his office in Limerick sending letters here there and everywhere.

However, now that it has become patently obvious that Willie will not be in Government after the next election, and therefore, not in a position to "get things done", a lot of these "personal" votes will go looking for the next candidate that will look after them.

Willies vote was always so high because he ring fenced both the FF vote in Limerick, and this huge "clientelist" vote. By distancing himself from the party, and not being in a position to look after his clients in the future, he may be alienating both sides of his support, and could be in for a hell of a shock come election time.

The same is happening to Mattie Mc Grath here in Tipp from what I am hearing.

Personal votes melt like the snow when people realise that you won't be in a position to deliver to them.
 

caulfield-the-yank

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There is also a fallacy about candidates getting elected in lower counts in proportional representation.

In fact, you will find few enough candidates make up any kind of serious ground as counts go on, because outside of "intra party transfers", the transfers do seem to go all over the place.
And with roughly 25% of the electorate not being traditionally aligned with the party (or the Independent) to whom they give their #1, won't those "intra-party" transfers be a smaller percentage of the transfers, and thus won't those transfers that "go all over the place" be accordingly higher?

And, if only by default if nothing else, won't that work to the relative advantage of FF, as compared to what might be extrapolated from its low first preference percentage?

That said, I thank the commenters who have pointed out that RedC has looked into the matter of transfers, and found that they are not hopeful for FF as this thread has hypothesized.
 

gijoe

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There is also a fallacy about candidates getting elected in lower counts in proportional representation.

In fact, you will find few enough candidates make up any kind of serious ground as counts go on, because outside of "intra party transfers", the transfers do seem to go all over the place.
Not completely true. It is the case that circa 80% of constituencies will return the candidates that come in the winning positions after the 1st count, but that is principally because the constituencies are in many cases not that competitive.

However, without even looking yet I would wager that half of the Greens 6 seats last time came from outside the the first 3,4,5 on the 1st count as the case may be. The Greens will lose all their seats this time because they rely on transfers that will not be there for them this time.
 

consultant

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Will Late Count Transfers Save FF From Complete Disaster?


Depends on how late and who's doing the counting.
 

mido

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Will Late Count Transfers Save FF From Complete Disaster?


Depends on how late and who's doing the counting.
and in what pub and where the garda is least likely to want a transfer to
 

rockofcashel

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Not completely true. It is the case that circa 80% of constituencies will return the candidates that come in the winning positions after the 1st count, but that is principally because the constituencies are in many cases not that competitive.

However, without even looking yet I would wager that half of the Greens 6 seats last time came from outside the the first 3,4,5 on the 1st count as the case may be. The Greens will lose all their seats this time because they rely on transfers that will not be there for them this time.
Only two out of 6 of the Greens were outside the winning positions on the first count.. and you could argue the Greens were a special case, as they were a "safe" party, and attracted transfers from all over the place
 


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