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Will the EU really let the UK leave?

scolairebocht

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 29, 2006
Messages
902
Under the Lisbon Treaty the EU introduced, for the first time, a formal exit mechanism for countries leaving the EU and it reads as follows:
"1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the
withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council
representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it. A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."
The important point is that the UK hasn't got out yet, it probably needs to invoke this Article 50 and then you get a clock ticking on a two year time period before the exit.

The important point I wish to make here is that, somewhat lost in the noise of his resignation, David Cameron has decided NOT to invoke article 50, although a while ago he said he would trigger it automatically on a Brexit vote. Instead he will leave that up to his successor, meaning that the UK will not formally even try to leave until October at the earliest?

This is actually now a very dangerous period for the stability of the rightly famed and long lasting democracy of the British people. If the EU, aided by elements within the UK, frustrate this vote and do not leave the EU it will rock the foundations of democracy there and actually all across the world.

Personally I think its odds on that this is exactly what is going to happen, the EU will not respect the vote and the UK will not actually leave. Think some cosmetic treaty changes and a new vote, or indeed some minor treaty changes and the UK joining the EU again without any other referendum - saying its too divisive, it invokes hatred etc etc - or indeed just some crisis arising which will cause the thing to blow away and the UK not trying to leave at all as a result of this 'advisory vote', a phrase that is becoming more popular I notice.

Just recently the Dutch government was compelled to hold a referendum on a treaty between the EU and Ukraine, it was compelled because of the laws on citizens petitions which can trigger a referendum. We were told it was going to be close blah blah instead it was a very decisive anti-EU vote throwing out the treaty right in the very heart of the EU. And the response, back to the drawing board on that treaty? Not at all, much talk about new 'negotiations' (between the EU and Holland, not involving Ukraine, they won't actually drop or change the treaty), much talk about the 'advisory' only nature of the referendum and even the Dutch PM saying he was fed up and disliked referenda now. It will be full steam ahead for the EU here like every other time they lost a referendum, they just don't care about democracy and after some fudge basically ignore the result.

If they do that here it could cause huge ructions in the UK, even a really politically unstable atmosphere, so watch this space!
 


crossman

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 16, 2011
Messages
1,602
Under the Lisbon Treaty the EU introduced, for the first time, a formal exit mechanism for countries leaving the EU and it reads as follows:


The important point is that the UK hasn't got out yet, it probably needs to invoke this Article 50 and then you get a clock ticking on a two year time period before the exit.

The important point I wish to make here is that, somewhat lost in the noise of his resignation, David Cameron has decided NOT to invoke article 50, although a while ago he said he would trigger it automatically on a Brexit vote. Instead he will leave that up to his successor, meaning that the UK will not formally even try to leave until October at the earliest?

This is actually now a very dangerous period for the stability of the rightly famed and long lasting democracy of the British people. If the EU, aided by elements within the UK, frustrate this vote and do not leave the EU it will rock the foundations of democracy there and actually all across the world.

Personally I think its odds on that this is exactly what is going to happen, the EU will not respect the vote and the UK will not actually leave. Think some cosmetic treaty changes and a new vote, or indeed some minor treaty changes and the UK joining the EU again without any other referendum - saying its too divisive, it invokes hatred etc etc - or indeed just some crisis arising which will cause the thing to blow away and the UK not trying to leave at all as a result of this 'advisory vote', a phrase that is becoming more popular I notice.

Just recently the Dutch government was compelled to hold a referendum on a treaty between the EU and Ukraine, it was compelled because of the laws on citizens petitions which can trigger a referendum. We were told it was going to be close blah blah instead it was a very decisive anti-EU vote throwing out the treaty right in the very heart of the EU. And the response, back to the drawing board on that treaty? Not at all, much talk about new 'negotiations' (between the EU and Holland, not involving Ukraine, they won't actually drop or change the treaty), much talk about the 'advisory' only nature of the referendum and even the Dutch PM saying he was fed up and disliked referenda now. It will be full steam ahead for the EU here like every other time they lost a referendum, they just don't care about democracy and after some fudge basically ignore the result.

If they do that here it could cause huge ructions in the UK, even a really politically unstable atmosphere, so watch this space!
There might be a temptation to go down this road but it won't happen. It would be too dangerous. It is different to revoting on thr likes of Lisbon where changes were made before a second vote.
 

macnessa

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 4, 2010
Messages
475
Yippee!!!!! Lets hope the Brits have really gone so that now we can have real European integration and a full United states of Europe. One hundred years on... England's difficulty is still Ireland's opportunity.
 

stopdoingstuff

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 26, 2011
Messages
22,377
Perhaps the EU might offer them a better deal in return for another vote, but it would be difficult to execute and everyone else might want a deal too. I would not underestimate the willingness of the EU to keep the group together but it looks like a big ask.
 

stopdoingstuff

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Joined
Feb 26, 2011
Messages
22,377
Yippee!!!!! Lets hope the Brits have really gone so that now we can have real European integration and a full United states of Europe. One hundred years on... England's difficulty is still Ireland's opportunity.
You may not have noticed growing Euroscepticism in other European countries.
 

daveL

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 29, 2010
Messages
19,367
The UK has to leave now.

There is now no political alternative.

None.
Could the EU not come forward with game changing meaningful proposals that Parliament could put to the people?
 

scolairebocht

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 29, 2006
Messages
902
Of course it doesn't look like that now, that the EU will compel them to stay, but give it a few months as it settles and as passions cool etc. Immediately after one of the Irish votes Eamonn Gilmore, as the leader of the Labour Party, announced there was no possibility whatsoever of another referendum, he respected completely the people's decision etc etc. Then on the same day he attended a party in the US embassy and, we found out from wikileaks, assured the officials that Ireland would just hold another vote and reverse the result.

The EU is a completely corrupting influence on the democracies of Europe and they know how to play the game. Their over the top scare mongering has disguised the fact that their plan all along, I believe, was always to stop the UK leaving irrespective of the result.
 

Surkov

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Joined
May 31, 2016
Messages
4,345
The referendum was very clear and categorical 'in or out' -no beating about the bush, no compromise, nothing left 'open to interpretation'.

How do you argue that in means in, but out doesn't mean out?

It's won't happen overnight, but it will happen: Britain is out.

The taboo has been broken, and other countries will want referendums too. Denmark, for example. Even Holland.
 

Nermal

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 9, 2010
Messages
1,320
How do you argue that in means in, but out doesn't mean out?
You argue that until the negotiations are finished, people didn't really know what they were voting on.

Another referendum will happen.
 

farnaby

Well-known member
Joined
May 15, 2006
Messages
1,930
There are probably EUrophiles of influence who see Brexit as an opportunity for closer union among the remainder, in sufficient numbers to block moves to overturn the referendum result. I don't see it happening.
 

Nipper

Well-known member
Joined
May 19, 2009
Messages
2,526
Yippee!!!!! Lets hope the Brits have really gone so that now we can have real European integration and a full United states of Europe. One hundred years on... England's difficulty is still Ireland's opportunity.
Part of the deal will be to take us with them

Watch our guys try to sell it to us, with a united Ireland as bait

What do you think all this maturity in relationship / Royal visits nonsense has all been about recently

All will be done and dusted for centenary commemorations of 1922
 

Surkov

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Joined
May 31, 2016
Messages
4,345
You argue that until the negotiations are finished, people didn't really know what they were voting on.

Another referendum will happen.
Lol no one from the remain side so much as squeaked anything about the people not comprehending what the words 'in' and 'out' mean. No one decried the referendum or even hinted it was invalid all through the campaigning. These same remainers will be a laughing stock if they now turn around and start whining and trying to question the outcome.
 

Surkov

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May 31, 2016
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Two years down the road and the EU will look even dodgier to people.;)
 

Nermal

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Apr 9, 2010
Messages
1,320
Lol no one from the remain side so much as squeaked anything about the people not comprehending what the words 'in' and 'out' mean. No one decried the referendum or even hinted it was invalid all through the campaigning. These same remainers will be a laughing stock if they now turn around and start whining and trying to question the outcome.
I agree, but watch the tune change. It depends on the Tory party, they're there till 2020. Boris/Gove are in the ascendancy and can complete the negotiations in time. But can they maintain control of the party, and control of parliament? The push for a referendum on the 'final' deal will be very strong...
 

popular1

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Joined
Feb 4, 2009
Messages
3,118
If these so called democrats in the eu could force the uk to stay they wouldnt think twice about it
You only have to look at them forcing the bank debt on ireland
And were quite happy to have reruns on referendum s in ireland which didn't suit them.
These people are capable of anyhting except listening to the genuine concerns of people
 

viper999

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 9, 2011
Messages
2,066
You can nearly taste the europhiles tears, what a glorious day......
the cheek of Enda Kenny going over telling them how to vote, while telling Farage stop meddling in the Lisbon referendum. What a stupid little man......
 


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