Will the IMF/EU be convinced by our budget/4 year plan

Fides

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It seems to me now the only way to avoid a bailout is for the budget/4 year plan to be pretty convincing and more or less in line with what they would do anyway.

A briefing note by Davys outlines the extent of the problem
Davy - Morning Equity Briefing

Basically income is at 2003 levels but:
Social Welfare 2003: €5.6b, 2010: €13.6b.
Health 2003: €7.5b 2010: €11.8b
Education: €5.3b 2010: €8b
These account for 80% of total expenditure

Public Sector employees: 2003 290,000 2010: 360,000

It is a pretty daunting task. Is the DoF up to it? Or do FF have the guts to do it? Personally I think they might as well, they have little to lose and they would get some kudos for doing so.
 


EmigratedTBTF

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As per previous thread halve welfare ps and pension ps defict no more that includes bank employeees and we are in surplus
 

Berty

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Why didn't Brian Lenihan take a copy of the 4-yr plan to Brussels. Seems strange that he has to invite the IMF to here to see it. I wonder if the 4 yr plan will actually make the slightest bit of difference to the decision to take the bail out. I don't think it will. I think the decisions have already been made for us.

Maybe we should get do a bit of bailing ourselves, like "bail out" of the feckin EU!

Of course all this pomp and ceremony could be a ploy to coerce the politicians to get the Budget through in December. Hard to know what to believe now.
 

Cato

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The big problem with the 4-year plan will be the estimates as to future growth. They will be too optimistic and therefore will make the plan unfeasible.
 

Fides

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The big problem with the 4-year plan will be the estimates as to future growth. They will be too optimistic and therefore will make the plan unfeasible.
Even if you put in 3% growth per annum for income tax that is only about €4b. Still leaves a big gap.
They have to convince these guys or it is definitely game over. What you're seeing in the UK are some announcements of serious cuts and no turning but then they have a mandate.
 

vanla sighs

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As per previous thread halve welfare ps and pension ps defict no more that includes bank employeees and we are in surplus
:rolleyes: You cannot simply cut by 50% social welfare, ps pay, pensions. Cannot be done - not by anyone, including the IMF/EU. A government would be lucky if it lasted 24 hours if it even tried and I'm not simply talking about TD's abandoning ship - the Dail would be burnt to the ground first and Cowen would need to jump on the gov jet for London. We'd have a coup before we'd have 50% cuts. No word of a lie. So you need to get a little real on that.

No the proposed budget won't, I think, be enough to satisfy the IMF/EU - I think they'll want more "austerity", i.e: pain and suffering for the majority. And it should be resisted. We'll take only so much.
 

FakeViking

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The party that have been consistently incompetent in running (and ruining) the economy should have no say in what happens for the next four weeks, let alone the next four years. But seeing that they have yet to come up with a four day plan, it's immaterial anyway.
 

droghedasouth

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Why didn't Brian Lenihan take a copy of the 4-yr plan to Brussels. Seems strange that he has to invite the IMF to here to see it. I wonder if the 4 yr plan will actually make the slightest bit of difference to the decision to take the bail out. I don't think it will. I think the decisions have already been made for us.

Maybe we should get do a bit of bailing ourselves, like "bail out" of the feckin EU!

Of course all this pomp and ceremony could be a ploy to coerce the politicians to get the Budget through in December. Hard to know what to believe now.
There is no need to bring a copy in his briefcase.
He doesn't even need to bring a box of them with one for every one in the audience.

Of course they have it already - they get every update emailed to them hour by hour.
Why else do you think that Olli Rehn is in daily contact with Dublin.
 

droghedasouth

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Brian Cowen's life work will be complete by Xmas.
EU/IMF installed in Merrion Hotel.
Devastating budget passed on December 7th.
All that is required to do is to call an election and complete the wipe-out of FF.
What are we waiting for.
 


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