Will TUV make gains if the DUP agrees to a new deal with Sinn Féin?

diy01

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It seems the Stormont talks are getting closer and closer to producing a new deal. If the DUP agrees to a standalone Irish Language Act and/or same sex marriage, will there be a split in the DUP, with Jim Allister's Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) making gains?

Jim Wells (one of the few still-active MLAs who was elected in 1998) is on record saying he will split away if gay marriage is ever introduced to Northern Ireland. One wonders if other ultra conservative DUP MLAs such as Mervyn Storey would be prepared to jump ship as well.

I expect the TUV will gain a modest amount of votes if the DUP ends up softening its stance on the Irish language or the same sex marriage issue, although it has limited room to grow. What do you think?

"DUP faces split threat if party agrees to gay marriage demand by Sinn Fein"
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2017/dup-faces-split-threat-if-party-agrees-to-gay-marriage-demand-by-sinn-fein-35640160.html

Theresa May urges 'one final push' on Stormont talks - BBC News
 


Dame_Enda

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I think the DUP are out of touch with a majority of Unionists on same sex marriage (see polls). About 25% of their MLAs are members of the Free Presbyterian Church, compared to perhaps 1% of the NI population. I think sooner or later it will be legalised in NI, particularly if Labour win the GE with a reasonable majority.
 

hollandia

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It seems the Stormont talks are getting closer and closer to producing a new deal. If the DUP agrees to a standalone Irish Language Act and/or same sex marriage, will there be a split in the DUP, with Jim Allister's Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) making gains?

Jim Wells (one of the few still-active MLAs who was elected in 1998) is on record saying he will split away if gay marriage is ever introduced to Northern Ireland. One wonders if other ultra conservative DUP MLAs such as Mervyn Storey would be prepared to jump ship as well.

I expect the TUV will gain a modest amount of votes if the DUP ends up softening its stance on the Irish language or the same sex marriage issue, although it has limited room to grow. What do you think?

"DUP faces split threat if party agrees to gay marriage demand by Sinn Fein"
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2017/dup-faces-split-threat-if-party-agrees-to-gay-marriage-demand-by-sinn-fein-35640160.html

Theresa May urges 'one final push' on Stormont talks - BBC News
In short - no. They won't make any gains. Outside of Jim Allister, they have no one of any note or talent. And their message is unremittingly negative. Not even the dup are unremittingly negative. And when it comes down to it, they won't split the unionist vote.
 

Dame_Enda

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They only have 28 seats so they will need 2 from other parties to vote with them to block it. TUV leader Jim Allister says he will do so, and DUP sources indicate a conservative UUP MLA would do so aswell.
 

diy01

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I think the DUP are out of touch with a majority of Unionists on same sex marriage (see polls). About 25% of their MLAs are members of the Free Presbyterian Church, compared to perhaps 1% of the NI population. I think sooner or later it will be legalised in NI, particularly if Labour win the GE with a reasonable majority.
I agree, but will it come at the cost of resignations by some DUP MLAs, MPs or councillors? I think it will.
 

Catalpast

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Surely the best way to decide the issue is by plebiscite?

- and with equal coverage/air time to both sides of the argument

- and no intimidation

- unlike the Farce we had down here....:?
 

Dame_Enda

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Surely the best way to decide the issue is by plebiscite?

- and with equal coverage/air time to both sides of the argument

- and no intimidation

- unlike the Farce we had down here....:?
Maybe
 

Windowshopper

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No, the DUP will make the usual argument that a vote for Jim Alistair is a vote for Michele O'Neill and this time they might not just be whipping up irrational fears.
 

between the bridges

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Probably not, tbh it depends on what the deal is...

Taken at face value, the positions of Sinn Fein and the DUP are irreconcilable. Mary Lou McDonald's party has insisted on a standalone Irish Language Act which Mrs Foster has ruled out in no uncertain terms.

But a fudge that would give both cover has long been under consideration, with civil servants reportedly tasked with drawing up several possible concoctions which would enable the leaders of both parties to save face.

Speculation at Stormont yesterday centred on the possibility of three separate Bills on the Irish language, Ulster-Scots and Culture and Respect. They would be brought separately to the Assembly but would later be fused into one Act. Sinn Fein could argue that it had bagged a win on its red line issue. The DUP could maintain it was a hybrid Cultural Act.


https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/irish-language-deal-could-be-fudgeflavoured-so-that-both-sides-can-swallow-it-36597178.html
 

hollandia

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Probably not, tbh it depends on what the deal is...

Taken at face value, the positions of Sinn Fein and the DUP are irreconcilable. Mary Lou McDonald's party has insisted on a standalone Irish Language Act which Mrs Foster has ruled out in no uncertain terms.

But a fudge that would give both cover has long been under consideration, with civil servants reportedly tasked with drawing up several possible concoctions which would enable the leaders of both parties to save face.

Speculation at Stormont yesterday centred on the possibility of three separate Bills on the Irish language, Ulster-Scots and Culture and Respect. They would be brought separately to the Assembly but would later be fused into one Act. Sinn Fein could argue that it had bagged a win on its red line issue. The DUP could maintain it was a hybrid Cultural Act.


https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/irish-language-deal-could-be-fudgeflavoured-so-that-both-sides-can-swallow-it-36597178.html
This is a problem. These should be viewed as a victory for everyone - as normalcy should be. Fudging it only kicks the can down the road. (I'm well aware that Stormont is choc full of world class can kickers).
 

Ó Ghabhainn

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Probably not, tbh it depends on what the deal is...

Taken at face value, the positions of Sinn Fein and the DUP are irreconcilable. Mary Lou McDonald's party has insisted on a standalone Irish Language Act which Mrs Foster has ruled out in no uncertain terms.

But a fudge that would give both cover has long been under consideration, with civil servants reportedly tasked with drawing up several possible concoctions which would enable the leaders of both parties to save face.

Speculation at Stormont yesterday centred on the possibility of three separate Bills on the Irish language, Ulster-Scots, and Culture and Respect. They would be brought separately to the Assembly but would later be fused into one Act. Sinn Fein could argue that it had bagged a win on its red line issue. The DUP could maintain it was a hybrid Cultural Act.


https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/irish-language-deal-could-be-fudgeflavoured-so-that-both-sides-can-swallow-it-36597178.html
Fixed.

Newton Emerson reckons that, if there's anything, it'll not be until Thursday anyway because the two parties take themselves too seriously to have one today or tomorrow.
 

former wesleyan

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They only have 28 seats so they will need 2 from other parties to vote with them to block it. TUV leader Jim Allister says he will do so, and DUP sources indicate a conservative UUP MLA would do so aswell.
Really ? Wiki sez they have 10, which is depressing enough.
 

theloner

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McNarry said will lead a band of merry men on removing Irish language signs. Let's hope they don't remove the Ulster Scotch ones by accident (again).
 

mangaire2

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Will TUV make gains if the DUP agrees to a new deal with Sinn Féin?

It seems the Stormont talks are getting closer and closer to producing a new deal. If the DUP agrees to a standalone Irish Language Act and/or same sex marriage, will there be a split in the DUP, with Jim Allister's Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) making gains?
perhaps, the TUV may gain a little.
however when it comes to elections, the Unionist voters will gravitate to whichever candidate is the most likely to win the seat, & this will normally be DUP.

SF should make whatever concessions are necessary, on the gay 'Marriage' issue,
as i'm sure that homosexuality is just as common among Unionists as it is among Nationalists - so the issue is every bit as much a Unionist issue as it is a Nationalist one.

SF should however insist on an Acht na Gaeilge.
 

Paddyc

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Really ? Wiki sez they have 10, which is depressing enough.
DUP have 28, TUV have one and UUP have 10.

All the DUP would have to vote against, along with Jim Allister and one UUP member and there's your thirty votes for a petition of concern.

I can't see the TUV getting anywhere.

If you look at the last assembly elections, in most cases the TUV candidate got less than a thousand first preference votes. Some got between one and two thousand and Jim Allister is the only one to get more than two thousand first preference votes.

If ever there was a political "one man band" the TUV is it.
 
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Craigmore..

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McNarry said will lead a band of merry men on removing Irish language signs. Let's hope they don't remove the Ulster Scotch ones by accident (again).
Sure they are nailed to everywhere to mark territory as it is. Irish language is on my rates bill and probably many other things that I don't have any real concerns about. No MLA had any issue with taking over a year off over it did they. :roll:
 

between the bridges

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This is a problem. These should be viewed as a victory for everyone - as normalcy should be. Fudging it only kicks the can down the road. (I'm well aware that Stormont is choc full of world class can kickers).

Ffs Holls, tis a sectarian carve up power sharing, both have to be able to declare victory loud enough to drown of the sound of red lines going down the plug hole...
 


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