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Would Sinn Féin be Irelands biggest party in a United Ireland?


IrishWelshCelt

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Before our unionist posters comment on the discussion Im well aware that it is not currently the case but in 10, 20, 30 years it is a very likely circumstance. So given SF are currently the norths biggest nationalist party and hover between 15-20% in the south would re-unification mean that SF would be the biggest party in a 32 county Ireland?

Would re-unification mean that a SF/SDLP coalition would dominate Irish politics?
 

ruserious

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It depends on how unification would go. It it were like Germany and transition was relatively smooth, then yes, perhaps. But if it was disruptive, and given the size of the NI civil service which would need to be cut, you imagine it would be chaotic. And thus, SF would receive a lot of the blame for the fall out.
 

friendlyfire

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If the leadership can wait and not enter government as a minor partner,then yes it can happen.They need to keep building the party all across the 26 counties,but with the younger generation leaving it will be long term project.
 

between the bridges

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my annual sash bash is the biggest party i know of...
 

cathalbrugha

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Before our unionist posters comment on the discussion Im well aware that it is not currently the case but in 10, 20, 30 years it is a very likely circumstance. So given SF are currently the norths biggest nationalist party and hover between 15-20% in the south would re-unification mean that SF would be the biggest party in a 32 county Ireland?

Would re-unification mean that a SF/SDLP coalition would dominate Irish politics?
An interesting question. Not easily answered, as SF/SDLP represent the Nationalist bloc in the north, but as 80% of the National territory, in the south, the Nationalist question isn't an everyday feature of peoples lives, so it means that people are voting for Sinn Féin for different reasons.. One person who left Sinn Féin left for the Socialist Party, whilst another left for Fianna Fáil, perhaps the latter was vice-versa.. So in a nutshell, Sinn Féin is a lot of different things, to a lot of different people..

The FF/SDLP/SF pan-nationalist front ala the Irish National Congress failed to acheive Irish Unity, hence, it's difficult to see how they'd dominate Irish politics, without Fianna Fáil on board.. 'tis almost comical how some Fianna Failers stick their heads above the paraphet with the 'Green card' at times.. What's even more comical is the Loyalists outflanking a beaten docket, twenty years after the race was ran, with a pan-unionist docket.. Someone should inform them that their numbers came up..
 

wombat

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Since the only way a united Ireland could be achieved would be if the majority of northern protestants decided that they were no longer unionists, it follows that the sectarian headcount would no longer apply, in which case SF would be redundant in the north and would have the same attraction as usual in the south.
 

Limerick Lad

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Before our unionist posters comment on the discussion Im well aware that it is not currently the case but in 10, 20, 30 years it is a very likely circumstance. So given SF are currently the norths biggest nationalist party and hover between 15-20% in the south would re-unification mean that SF would be the biggest party in a 32 county Ireland?

Would re-unification mean that a SF/SDLP coalition would dominate Irish politics?
The only place where SF will be the biggest political party in Ireland will be on Politics.ie polls.
 

Mattarigna

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Since the only way a united Ireland could be achieved would be if the majority of northern protestants decided that they were no longer unionists, it follows that the sectarian headcount would no longer apply, in which case SF would be redundant in the north and would have the same attraction as usual in the south]
Not neccessarily a majority from Unionist backgrounds - even if only a quarter wanted it, and provided that the Nationalist community is kept on board, it can be done.
 
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Tough Paddy

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More chance of FG being the biggest party in an united Ireland. In any case, we won't see an united Ireland again until at least a minimum of 50 years. It will take at least that long before some of the deep hatred and bitterness held by both sides for each other is bred away (for the want of a better expression). There's more chance of the two Koreas being united before that of Ireland.
 

IrishWelshCelt

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The only place where SF will be the biggest political party in Ireland will be on Politics.ie polls.
I thought one of the excuses was that many votes on the polls come from the north? If thats true surely they would be the biggest party?
 

wombat

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Not neccessarily a majority from Unionist backgrounds - even if only a quarter wanted it, and provided that the Nationalist community is kept on board, it can be done.
This is where I disagree with what most nationalists mean by a united Ireland. Unless there is a major change in the opinion of a majority of the protestant population, there cannot be a united Ireland. We will have a united Ireland when the ideals of the United Irishmen are achieved, otherwise we are talking of territorial unity based on a sectarian headcount.
 

cathalbrugha

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Since the only way a united Ireland could be achieved would be if the majority of northern protestants decided that they were no longer unionists, it follows that the sectarian headcount would no longer apply, in which case SF would be redundant in the north and would have the same attraction as usual in the south.
What All the Republican Partys, including All the splitters have failed to do, and would fail to do today, is Show the northern protestants what a United Ireland will look like.. Berty Ahern offered them 60 seats, the way you'd offer to buy someone a pint.. That's how 'serious' the pish process was to some people.. Labour & Fine Gael offered ZILSCH in the way of proposals for unity, pre-GFA..

Sinn Féins all-island vote, is a substantial vote nonetheless, whether people like them or not.. And it's a vote that won't disappear the way Clann Na Phoblacht/WP bloc vote disappeared.. It could hover at the 20-25% of the all-island vote for the next hundred years..
 

SideysGhost

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Since the only way a united Ireland could be achieved would be if the majority of northern protestants decided that they were no longer unionists
:confused:

Which bit of 50%+1 are you having trouble with?

The logical result of this gibberish is a tiny enclave around Schloss Paisley holding a veto over the political arrangements of the entire island. Mad stuff, but only what you'd expect from the southern gombeen class, who will leap on any old excuse at all to run away from unification.
 

hammer

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Absolutely not. All the unionists would surely vote FG to keep SF out !!!!!

Up the blueshirts.
 

cathalbrugha

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Absolutely not. All the unionists would surely vote FG to keep SF out !!!!!

Up the blueshirts.
Sinn Féin will have to do a remix of dire straits Bigots In Arms, as a twibute to ye lol..
 

Mattarigna

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It would certainly be one of the largest parties(assuming that a UI happened now), but the biggest? I doubt it, I would say that it would be FG, by a whisker.
 

Mattarigna

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This is where I disagree with what most nationalists mean by a united Ireland. Unless there is a major change in the opinion of a majority of the protestant population, there cannot be a united Ireland. We will have a united Ireland when the ideals of the United Irishmen are achieved, otherwise we are talking of territorial unity based on a sectarian headcount.
Do you think that I like that? I'm simply stating the reality that it doesn't need a majority of Unionist concent. Obviously, I would prefer if a majority of the Unionist community did vote for a UI, but any border referendum up North which results in a UI is going to be down to the wire - properly by a margin of a few percent. And there are many Unionists who, even now, oppose aspects of the GFA, and they are not a crackpot minority - they would be completely impossible to pursuade if even power-sharing and elquality in the civic enviroment is too much for them. Look what hapoened in Belfast, the Unionists councillors regarded the flag proposal as an "attack on their culture". If they can't even contemplate having a flag policy to symbolise Belfast's shared heritage, they will never vote for a UI.
 
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