Would the real National Debt please stand up?

SkatesOn

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Joined
Feb 12, 2009
Messages
59
Here are the figures
90bn - current sov. debt
20bn - prefunded debt
23bn - redeeming bonds over next 3 years
35bn - bank recapitalisation
45bn - cost of funding the the country over next 3 years
100bn - short term ECB liquidity to irish banks
30bn - irish central bank master loan repurchase agreements
343bn grand total
Source: http://www.politics.ie/media/143785-vinny-23-11-a-13.html

Brian Lucey quoted above figures on Vincent Browne 23/11 (before bailout), which almost caused a run on the banks.

I've been thinking about this for the past few days and only got round to looking into it now.
Seems to me he has no idea of what he was talking about:

1. 90bn - current sov. debt -- OK
2. 20bn - prefunded debt -- already included in sovereign debt
3. 23bn - redeeming bonds over next 3 years -- already included in sovereign debt - just rolling it over
4. 35bn - bank recapitalisation -- OK (and bang on the money re bailout)
5. 45bn - cost of funding the the country over next 3 years -- OK
6. 100bn - short term ECB liquidity to irish banks -- This is short term liquidity - not included in national debt
7. 30bn - irish central bank master loan repurchase agreements -- This is short term liquidity - not included in national debt

Excluding 2. 3. 6. 7. we get 170bn
Or taking actual bailout/loan of 67.5bn + current 90bn = 157.5bn (Sovereign Debt in 2014)

The current interest on the 90bn is approx 4.2bn per annum + projected 67.5bn @ 5.8% = 3.9bn, gives a total interest bill in 2014 of 8.1bn, along way away from 15-18bn that was quoted.
 


hammer

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Jul 6, 2009
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58,180
Incorrect :)

You dont include bank deposits. If you did the figure would be closer to €400,000 million
 

SkatesOn

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Feb 12, 2009
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59
One quibble, The prefunding is not included in the sovereign debt. The debt is quoted net of prefunding.

see NTMA - National Debt - Instruments Comprising the Debt

so you can add the €20bn odd back on to the grand total.
From NTMA:

Medium/Long Term Liabilities (Note 1) 90.3
Short Term Liabilities (Note 2) 11.1
Less Liquid Assets -24.5
Net Short Term Liabilities -13.4
Retail debt (Note 3) 11.8
Total National Debt 88.6

So we have 90.3bn in bonds + 11.8bn in Retail debt - 13.4bn in cash = 88.6bn
- this is the current national debt.
 

makingjam

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Feb 24, 2010
Messages
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From NTMA:

Medium/Long Term Liabilities (Note 1) 90.3
Short Term Liabilities (Note 2) 11.1
Less Liquid Assets -24.5
Net Short Term Liabilities -13.4
Retail debt (Note 3) 11.8
Total National Debt 88.6

So we have 90.3bn in bonds + 11.8bn in Retail debt - 13.4bn in cash = 88.6bn
- this is the current national debt.
Maybe you are missing my point.

You said that the pre-funding is included in the national debt. It isn't. The national debt is spent money. The pre-funding has not yet been spent. Therefore, as it is spent, it will add to the national debt. (ie the 13.4bn will fall and the total will increase)
 

firefly123

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Dec 8, 2009
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28,474
Does this mean I can come out from under the bed then?
 


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