WSJ: "Ireland Will Win This Game of Bluff"

darkknight

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Heard on the Street: Ireland Will Win This Game of Bluff - WSJ.com


The Irish are a nation of gamblers. ... it would be dangerous to bet against Dublin winning its high-stakes game of poker with the European Union over a possible bailout.

Ireland's aim is to secure a deal on the most favorable terms, including crucially the retention of its ultralow corporate-tax rate, a potent symbol of economic sovereignty that the minority Fianna Fail government is determined to protect at all costs ahead of next year's likely elections.

Dublin still has the strongest hand. The first thing in its favor is that no one can force it to accept a bailout; Ireland has to ask the European Union for help. And given the Irish government is fully funded until the middle of next year, it can in theory drag this situation out for months. If it did that, of course, contagion would likely spread quickly across the euro zone, as Tuesday's stock and bond selloffs showed, threatening the survival of the common currency. In that sense, Ireland is armed with a nuclear weapon.

In response, the EU is armed only with bows and arrows.
There is very little it can do to force Dublin to seek an early bailout. The one pressure point is Ireland's banks, now only able to survive thanks to European Central Bank funding. But so long as the banks are still able to post eligible collateral, the ECB has little option but to continue accepting it, even though its lending to Ireland now totals €130 billion, equivalent to 80% of Irish GDP ...
Game on!

It would be reassuring, in a bizarre way, if our Government explained to us in clear terms that this - or something along these lines - is what is happening.

Trouble is, it's not at all clear that the Government realises that the starting whistle has been blown and the game is already under way. :confused:
 


Mister men

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The shame of it all. We really are a laughing stock.
 

Sync

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To expand on WSJ's point though, Ireland may have a bomb, but they can only detonate it in Dublin. And sure the radiation will probably kill off Portugal, and may at some point get as far as Madrid, but Dublin's still not going to be on the map any more.
 
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Heard on the Street: Ireland Will Win This Game of Bluff - WSJ.com




Game on!

It would be reassuring, in a bizarre way, if our Government explained to us in clear terms that this - or something along these lines - is what is happening.

Trouble is, it's not at all clear that the Government realises that the starting whistle has been blown and the game is already under way. :confused:
Huh you mean you only realised this because WSJ said it !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We don't have to do anything, they want us to do it.

Funny so many people on here wish to lie on their back because BBC / Reuters and Bloomberg tell them.
 

ballot stuffer

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Great, Cowen is going all in with a busted flush hoping Europe blinks first.
 

owedtojoy

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Heard on the Street: Ireland Will Win This Game of Bluff - WSJ.com




Game on!

It would be reassuring, in a bizarre way, if our Government explained to us in clear terms that this - or something along these lines - is what is happening.

Trouble is, it's not at all clear that the Government realises that the starting whistle has been blown and the game is already under way. :confused:
So the Great Economic Gurus of Fianna Fail end up playing poker with our future at the Last Chance Saloon.

Have we any better reason to get rid of these chancers?
 

borntorum

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To expand on WSJ's point though, Ireland may have a bomb, but they can only detonate it in Dublin. And sure the radiation will probably kill off Portugal, and may at some point get as far as Madrid, but Dublin's still not going to be on the map any more.
Mutually Assured Destruction. It worked during the Cold War, perhaps it's going to work to our benefit now
 

Mondo

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Don't you mean FF might win?

...and where FF win Ireland always lose.
 

Oldira1

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Maybe the government should call in the opposition and tell them this so. No bailout unless we get guarantees on our Corporation Tax rate, interest rate to be 2% and we want Portugal to cede the Algarve to us.

If we threaten the EU they will back down.

Fianna Fail have sold us out to developers and bankers but Fine Gael would sell us out to Germans.

Lets threaten financial Armageddon.....see who blinks.

Its like going all in with a 2,7 while the board is showing AAK. Let them think we are holding AA or AK.
 

MPB

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About time somebody recognised we hold all the Aces in this game.

The least we should expect is for a total transfer of the Bank debt to it,s rightful owners in the ECB.

I don,t fancy the poker players we have chosen to represent us however.
 

Watcher2

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If this is what they are playing at, they are playing, not with fire, but with uranium. Knowing how foolish our lads are, and their transparent cute hoorism, the EU will take its pound of flesh sooner rather than later. The WSJ is dressing it up like 6 months of borrowed funding is a sweet spot to be in. What if our bluff is called, the ECB et al, support the other at risk countries and let us swing in the wind?

How would all you FFers like to have those tables turned on you. I wouldn't.
 

Clanrickard

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Clanrickard

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We could be left behind though. Welcome the Peuro (Punt + euro....yeah, a bad one I know).
Can't happen. Once you are in you are in. Same way with the EU. All this talk of kicking people out is rubbish.
 

darkknight

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It's definitely time for some Game Theory to come into play.

NOBODY will want a Lose/Lose outcome (the Mutually Assured Destruction scenario).

They (Olli and his colleagues) will not contemplate a WE Win/They Lose outcome (it's not even clear how such an outcome would be possible)

We most certainly do not want a They Win/We Lose outcome (e.g., their reckless lenders get all their money back, while we are saddled with crippling debt for generations).

So, if sanity prevails (by no means guaranteed!), we should all be reflecting on what a Win/Win outcome might look like.

Of course, it should go without saying that, in present circumstances (i.e., a complete and utter mess!), 'Win' is a relative term!
 

Watcher2

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Can't happen. Once you are in you are in. Same way with the EU. All this talk of kicking people out is rubbish.
I think you missed what I said. I was not talking about being kicked out, I was talking about being left behind, and of course it could happen. They all band together and form their own currency and we will not be invited to the table. I'm not saying it is probable, but it is possible.
 

Hogwash

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If the rest of Europe want us to take the bailout then we do hold some cards still. At the very least I would like to see Brian L not to give in to all the demands and negotiate the best possible deal on a bailout. Corporation tax would have to be the line-in-the-sand. Am I hopeful though about how good our negotiators are? Not at all!
 

Odyessus

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