Wuhan coronavirus - Coming Soon?

GabhaDubh

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The Chinese government has declared war on the virus. The people are collateral damage.

Today’s stat that no one is talking about relative to the Coronavirus in China. 1200 in the Medical field are infected with 6 deaths. If you have less people to treat the victims the fatality rates will increase.
 


blindjustice

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Lancet doesn't agree with travel restrictions,. Calls it an illegal breach of International Health Regulations:



Article 3.1 strictly requires all additional health measures to be implemented “with full respect for the dignity, human rights and fundamental freedoms of persons”,1 which in turn must reflect the international law principles of necessity, legitimacy, and proportionality that govern limitations to and derogations from rights and freedoms.10 Under no circumstances should public health or foreign policy decisions be based on the racism and xenophobia that are now being directed at Chinese people and those of Asian descent.11
Many of the travel restrictions implemented by dozens of countries during the COVID-19 outbreak are therefore violations of the IHR
 

Wagmore

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On second viewing, I think this letter has to be viewed as pure propaganda. I've seen videos of people being shot in the street so euphemisms surrounding their incarceration smack of state diktats and have to be taken with a pinch of salt. RTE should be asked to clarify whether letter was cleared by Chinese embassy. Then again, who's going to ask that question anymore
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
I don't see where it is within the remit of the Lancet to address political philosophy in the middle of a global health issue. Sometimes I wonder whether there has been a collective loss of mind.

There is no way in the wide world of sports that it would ever be a good idea to fly people out of an outbreak zone to a number of countries without being absolutely certain that none of them was a super-carrier or wasn't showing increased body temperature and still carrying the virus.

The virus is scary enough but it is exhibiting from everything I've read a fairly stable aspect compared to what it could have been. The ground zero is a market area in Wuhan where animals and people are in close proximity. The corovid-19 virus is apparently derived from bats where the virus jumped species to humans.

The SARS virus was another relatively stable virus and that came from bats to civet cats in the wild and crossed species from there. Simply repatriating people before we know anything about the outbreak is criminally insane.

I suspect the Chinese government may well break up, bulldoze and ban on pain of a very uncertain future anyone from holding animal markets in the way Wuhan, Hubei and other Chinese regions do.

Those markets could prove deadly given the high human and animal contact levels. This is the second warning, I think. There is nothing between the human race and a global level population reduction event but dumb luck. All it takes is a virus like corovid-19 which mutates as it crosses species and it would be sayonara for many people.

The thoughts of repatriation flights spreading an unstable and mutating virus containing the ability to go Marburg or Ebola-like are probably more of a worry to my mind than Corovid-19 at the present moment.

Stuff like the Lancet getting involved in or at least accused of being involved with the politics and legalities of migration in the face of these sorts of threats makes me really alarmed.
 

silverharp

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pre peer review but says it causes kidney damage and causes fertility issues in men

 

Lumpy Talbot

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The fact that corovid-19 affects fertility in men does not surprise me in the least. These outbreaks from 2003 to today are directly related to high density population centres which are perfect breeding grounds for viruses to emerge. Bats to birds to civet cats to domestic pets to humans in a packed environment and you have a ticking time-bomb.

Referring once again to the Tasmanian Devil observation of an endangered species, then protected, which beget a population explosion which outstripped the local environment's ability to support such a population. Just as the debate was under way on a cull programme a mysterious auto-immune disease appeared among the Tasmanian Devil population. Nature seems to be quite ruthless in dealing with over-population imbalances and appears to have its own system of checks and balances in place.

Which we should be concerned about.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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If you were a farmer and were taking some time out from scanning the horizon in the hope of one good year, just one, and the faraway whiff of Cheltenham in your flared nostrils, and you realised you had a murrain or disease among your pigs, sheep, poultry, whatever.

The last thing you would do is quickly grab some of the ones showing signs of illness and disperse them to other flocks in other fields. Yet this is what the first reaction of western governments was in relation to their citizens in the outbreak zone. Complete madness and no sense at all to it.

If a virus like Corovid-19 comes along and develops the ability to mutate then if something similar happens next time there is an outbreak you could have ten people incubating a killer disease at varying stages of incubation and pre-mutation being effectively imported to major western urban centres completely undetected by temperature checks for something like Corovid-19.

Most novel viruses appear and die out like wildfires. It only takes one like Corovid-19 to be an active rather than passive virus, with the ability to mutate and repatriation flights could do the rest.
 

WayOutWest

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On second viewing, I think this letter has to be viewed as pure propaganda. I've seen videos of people being shot in the street so euphemisms surrounding their incarceration smack of state diktats and have to be taken with a pinch of salt. RTE should be asked to clarify whether letter was cleared by Chinese embassy. Then again, who's going to ask that question anymore
I would assume that he is a government employee and his letter would have been approved by the authorities.
 

WayOutWest

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RTÉ Radio Player
1hr 12min in
Another story from RTÉ of the ‘hardship’ .
It’s not Wuhan and doesn’t reflect what I’m hearing.
Well stocked supermarkets but no mushrooms.
6.7 km from nearest confirmed virus case.
 

Pabilito

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The thoughts of repatriation flights spreading an unstable and mutating virus containing the ability to go Marburg or Ebola-like are probably more of a worry to my mind than Corovid-19 at the present moment.
We had the weekly “WeChat” video call with the brother in law and wife in Beijing this afternoon.. for a laugh they appeared wearing their face masks and disposable gloves that they’re obliged to wear going outside..

It was 11pm there at 4pm this afternoon here and the contrast between us sitting in the car in Portrane (watching the coastal erosion at high tide) and them in their 27th floor Beijing apartment couldn’t be starker..

They wanted to talk.. and talk.. cabin fever.. even the dog looked depressed. All the entrances to their apartment block are closed apart from one where a guy is stationed with a temperature measuring gun checking everyone going in and out.. anyone with a high temp is immediately taken into quarantine..

The brother in law is a Danish diplomat and what surprised me is that there’s nothing stopping them from returning home to Europe from Beijing at any time despite the possibility of contracting and spreading the virus. There’s no way Ireland can escape this virus at this stage.
 

recedite

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Guess it's not a conspiracy theory anymore eh.....? Time to be very afraid?
I would guess they inadvertently created this Frankenstein virus while studying the virology of the SARs type virus.
Infected lab worker probably walked through the market on his way home, infecting someone else there.
 

WayOutWest

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Guess it's not a conspiracy theory anymore eh.....? Time to be very afraid?
If they printed it in the Mail it must be true.
Other news outlets are a bit behind with this story.
 

blindjustice

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A statistical analysis of China’s coronavirus casualty data shows a near-perfect prediction model that data analysts say isn’t likely to naturally occur, casting doubt over the reliability of the numbers being reported to the World Health Organization. That’s aside from news on Thursday that health officials in the epicenter of the outbreak reported a surge in new infections after changing how they diagnose the illness.

…the number of cumulative deaths reported is described by a simple mathematical formula to a very high accuracy, according to a quantitative-finance specialist who ran a regression of the data for Barron’s. A near-perfect 99.99% of variance is explained by the equation, this person said.

Put in an investing context, that variance, or so-called r-squared value, would mean that an investor could predict tomorrow’s stock price with almost perfect accuracy. In this case, the high r-squared means there is essentially zero unexpected variability in reported cases day after day.

Barron’s re-created the regression analysis of total deaths caused by the virus, which first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of last year, and found similarly high variance. We ran it by Melody Goodman, associate professor of biostatistics at New York University’s School of Global Public Health.

“I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,” Goodman says. “As a statistician, it makes me question the data.”

Real human data are never perfectly predictive when it comes to something like an epidemic, Goodman says, since there are countless ways that a person could come into contact with the virus.

For context, Goodman says a “really good” r-squared, in terms of public health data, would be a 0.7. “Anything like 0.99,” she said, “would make me think that someone is simulating data. It would mean you already know what is going to happen.”There’s one scenario where the data could be understandably jiggered, Goodman said. Because there are privacy concerns around public health data, it’s conceivable that someone would simulate the data based on real data, so as to make the individuals unidentifiable. But even then, the r-squared in this case is extraordinarily high. Moreover, says Goodman, when data are manipulated to protect privacy, it would need to be disclosed; there is no such disclosure on the WHO site.


 


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