Wuhan coronavirus - Coming Soon?

raetsel

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Well said again. You're probably right My problem was with conspiracy theorists claiming it was a mistake at a bio-weapon factory and as a result we're facing a global pandemic of Spanish flu proportions. Hopefully time will tell as regards whether this was conspiracy sheiitte
Accurate statistics for the Spanish flu were never possible to assemble. However estimates for the percentage of fatalities which occured from it among those infected range from 10 to 20% - in other words much higher than the 2% rate currently estimated for COVID-19. Furthermore, unlike Spanish flu which predominantly affected the young, those at worst risk are aged 60 plus. Therefore, in bald practical terms, it can be expected that the economic and social consequences will also be less severe. That's not a lot of consolation to the likes of me though. :)
 


silverharp

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that 2% could go up if there isn't proper treatment of the serious cases
 

Finbar10

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Is there any chance you might back that up there, bud?
Sure (as referred to in the note I linked to earlier), the wet market is Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan. The lab in question is the
Wuhan Center for Disease Control & Prevention (WHCDC), which that note says is part of the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Just put these locations into google maps and you get the following (not sure if it is exactly 300m, but somewhere in that ballpark). It's probably a convenient place where staff from that lab might drop into to pick up food items etc.

seafoodMarket.png
 
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raetsel

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I totally agree. And sorry to hear about you asthma. As a parent of a young daughter my concern about this virus is accentuated in a way that it would not have been previously. That's why I think it's helpful to get all info out there and systematically separate wheat from chaff as it were. That was my sole intention in posting what seems, initially, as a wacky conspiracy theory. I billed it as such in fairness to me and also called it as such when noting its transition to MS rag media.Nobody happier than me uf this turns out to be over hyped and non sinister. As I said, footage(if true) of Chinese people keeling over dead in the street still gives me cause for concern
Apparently children seem to be at lowest risk, so that is good news if true. I have a 1 year old granddaughter and obviously we like to see as much as possible of her. However, if this spreads over the next year and becomes an epidemic as some are predicting then I am going to do all I can to avoid it until a vaccine becomes available. That means I have real dilemmas in the lifestyle choices I make, given that small children pick up everything and spread it to the adults around them. I've already contracted one awful 24 hour vomiting bug from her, as did everyone else in the family last November, and I thought I was being careful not to catch it. That underlines the risk for me, so I simply cannot afford to be complacent about this.
 

Wagmore

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Accurate statistics for the Spanish flu were never possible to assemble. However estimates for the percentage of fatalities which occured from it among those infected range from 10 to 20% - in other words much higher than the 2% rate currently estimated for COVID-19. Furthermore, unlike Spanish flu which predominantly affected the young, those at worst risk are aged 60 plus. Therefore, in bald practical terms, it can be expected that the economic and social consequences will also be less severe. That's not a lot of consolation to the likes of me though. :)
Can understand that- I had a bad chest infection a couple of years back and didn't like that panicky drowning feeling. Can only imagine since what asthma must be like
 

raetsel

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that 2% could go up if there isn't proper treatment of the serious cases
My guess is that China (where the stats are coming from) may already have that problem. It's simply too early to factor in those sort of unknowns though.
The other point that I'm not sure about is whether the serious cases which affect the 20%, are the result of a particularly virulent strain or whether it is simply a case that the 20% all have chronic underlying conditions.
 

raetsel

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Can understand that- I had a bad chest infection a couple of years back and didn't like that panicky drowning feeling. Can only imagine since what asthma must be like
Fortunately I'm one of the lucky people who react well to steroid treatment so the worst effects clear up for me with 48 to 72 hours once I begin the medication. I'm well aware of the dosage I need at this point and keep a reserve stock (bought in Spain where many medications can be obtained over the counter) so I don't have to wait to see the GP for a prescription. I don't have to take it too often and luckily there is no parallel with antibiotics in that repeated usage won't diminish the medication's effectiveness.
 

Finbar10

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that 2% could go up if there isn't proper treatment of the serious cases
That seems to be the issue in Hubei in particular. It's noticeable that the recent Chinese stats put the death rate at seven times higher there. Basically, the hospitals are clogged to the gills. Often, even serious cases cannot get into hospital or have access to intensive care. 14% of cases on average in China are serious, (within that) 5% are critical, and 2.3% actually die (interestingly, the death rate for men is twice that for women). Those overall average Chinese figures seem to assume hospital and intensive care access. If those are not really available (as in Hubei), it seems that death rates are a lot higher. Deaths also predominantly occur in those in their 60s, 70s and 80s (particular those with health issues).
 

Wagmore

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Fortunately I'm one of the lucky people who react well to steroid treatment so the worst effects clear up for me with 48 to 72 hours once I begin the medication. I'm well aware of the dosage I need at this point and keep a reserve stock (bought in Spain where many medications can be obtained over the counter) so I don't have to wait to see the GP for a prescription. I don't have to take it too often and luckily there is no parallel with antibiotics in that repeated usage won't diminish the medication's effectiveness.
Glad to hear
 

blinding

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That seems to be the issue in Hubei in particular. It's noticeable that the recent Chinese stats put the death rate at seven times higher there. Basically, the hospitals are clogged to the gills. Often, even serious cases cannot get into hospital or have access to intensive care. 14% of cases on average in China are serious, (within that) 5% are critical, and 2.3% actually die (interestingly, the death rate for men is twice that for women). Those overall average Chinese figures seem to assume hospital and intensive care access. If those are not really available (as in Hubei), it seems that death rates are a lot higher. Deaths also predominantly occur in those in their 60s, 70s and 80s (particular those with health issues).
At least the Feminists will have that.
 

petaljam

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Understand why you'd think I was whining but, as you can see, didn't mean to post that. My mistake--was going to post but wanted time to go further back to retrieve my original post to ensure paranoia wasn't getting the better of me. Looks like it was so apols for waste of your time.
Sure, we all make mistakes.

Still, I'm just reminding you that the mod in question had removed a post of yours that was off topic without giving out a sanction - which was reasonable in the circumstances, but also proves once and for all that you're no more severely sanctioned for this sort of thing than anyone else.
 

edg

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Sure (as referred to in the note I linked to earlier), the wet market is Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan. The lab in question is the
Wuhan Center for Disease Control & Prevention (WHCDC), which that note says is part of the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Just put these locations into google maps and you get the following (not sure if it is exactly 300m, but somewhere in that ballpark). It's probably a convenient place where staff from that lab might drop into to pick up food items etc.

seafoodMarket.png
The first I heard of this virus being in Wuhan brought back recent memories of the Wuhan viral facilities being upgraded.

I don't think it's a coincidence. I'm sure this virus will be traced back to this lab.
 

Politics matters

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I like the Chinese in Ireland, but, they shouldn't be eating every member of the animal kingdom. They are partly to blame.
 

Catahualpa

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silverharp

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looks like Iran will be a problem

 

GabhaDubh

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looks like Iran will be a problem

If Countries downplay the actual level of infection to preserve National pride, that is the real danger.
 


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