Wuhan coronavirus - Coming Soon?

petaljam

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Directionally it doesn't matter, in this case I wouldn't use the terms "deliberate falsification", none the less it was an intentional choice , it wasn't a "forget to carry the one " mistake.
Next year the best approach will be to look back at 2020 relative to earlier years and look at excess deaths.
But we already know from excess deaths that there is a far greater undercount in the USA than overcount. We don't yet know the detail, but the trend is already clear.
About 30% of COVID deaths may not be classified as such

(In general, it seems likely that countries with a much lower than average "deaths per million" from Covid (compared to similar economies/healthcare spending) will turn out to have been undercounting its effects. The USA is among those, although its rate is rising - but it seems that this is probably due to an increased death rate as the health system becomes overwhelmed by new cases, rather than to better counting methods being applied. So the worst of both worlds, in fact.)
 


raetsel

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Directionally it doesn't matter, in this case I wouldn't use the terms "deliberate falsification", none the less it was an intentional choice , it wasn't a "forget to carry the one " mistake.
Next year the best approach will be to look back at 2020 relative to earlier years and look at excess deaths.
I agree. I believe that there is already far more likely to be an undercount in a lot of countries including the USA because of the lack of health care for the poor and uninsured.
 

caledhel

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Better strategies for testing discussed.


 

owedtojoy

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Still ticking up, not as fast as initially but there is a risk of another exponential expansion.
 

Mrs. Crotta Cliach

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Coronavirus makes changes that cause cells not to recognize it
by University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio

"With an alarm code, we can enter a building without bells going off. It turns out that the SARS coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has the same advantage entering cells. It possesses the code to waltz right in.

On July 24 in Nature Communications, researchers at The University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio (UT Health San Antonio) reported how the coronavirus achieves this...

"Yogesh's work discovered the 3-D structure of a key enzyme of the COVID-19 virus required for its replication and found a pocket in it that can be targeted to inhibit that enzyme. This is a fundamental advance in our understanding of the virus," said study coauthor Robert Hromas, MD, professor and dean of the Long School of Medicine... MORE
 

owedtojoy

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The US deaths are showing depressing signs of exponential growth again, though not at the earlier rate.

blog_covid19_country_comparison_july_23_deaths.gif



59 mins ago
Here’s the coronavirus death toll through July 23. Yesterday 1,114 people died of COVID-19 in the United States. In Germany, 8 people died.
 

cozzy121

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Horrible to still see fringe elements been given opportunities to spread misinformation...


I suppose Dr Fauci and his family can expect more death threats after this.
When dealing with such morons anything could happen..

20200725_141213.jpg


Credit to Broadsheet..
 

forest

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What the hell is going on in Luxembourg
This cases per 100,00 in a forthnight metric has Ireland at 5.2 UK at 14.7 Spain 35.1 and Luxembourg at 219
Is it just an anomaly due to its size or something else
 

Ardillaun

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Slaughterhouses seem to have disappeared in the US. They’re all meat processing/packing plants now.
 
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Ardillaun

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Armenia worst and Georgia best on this graph:


I would not have expected such a massive difference. Needless to say, this hasn’t escaped notice in Yerevan.

The couple in what has been called the “Caucasus’ most legendary love-hate relationship,” Armenia and Georgia, now has a new topic to argue about: the coronavirus.

The two neighbors have had substantially different experiences under the global pandemic. In Georgia, COVID-19 has been largely kept at bay, and the government’s response feted worldwide. In Armenia, meanwhile, the number of cases continues to shoot up and the country has the highest per capita rate of the disease in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

...The real difference, though, is not that complicated: Georgia implemented self-isolation regimes and controls on movement significantly sooner than Armenia did. Georgia barred flights from Italy starting March 6, and even before that it was forcing arriving passengers from Italy and other hot spots into two-week quarantines. Armenia didn’t stop flights to and from Italy until March 15; the notorious Echmiadzin party-goer arrived on March 8.

...On May 5, a former prime minister of Armenia, Hrant Bagratyan, said that he was hoping for direct Georgian intervention in Armenia’s coronavirus response.

Greece has also done really well.
 
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middleground

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Coronavirus makes changes that cause cells not to recognize it
by University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio

"With an alarm code, we can enter a building without bells going off. It turns out that the SARS coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has the same advantage entering cells. It possesses the code to waltz right in.

On July 24 in Nature Communications, researchers at The University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio (UT Health San Antonio) reported how the coronavirus achieves this...

"Yogesh's work discovered the 3-D structure of a key enzyme of the COVID-19 virus required for its replication and found a pocket in it that can be targeted to inhibit that enzyme. This is a fundamental advance in our understanding of the virus," said study coauthor Robert Hromas, MD, professor and dean of the Long School of Medicine... MORE
I had to read your posting twice before deciding that it was good news if the research findings can be used to prevent the virus disguising itself as friendly. This paragraph from the article is interesting:

Deciphering the 3D structure of nsp16 paves the way for rational design of antiviral drugs for COVID-19 and other emerging coronavirus infections, Dr. Gupta said. The drugs, new small molecules, would inhibit nsp16 from making the modifications. The immune system would then pounce on the invading virus, recognizing it as foreign.
 

raetsel

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Why the young need to start taking COVID19 a lot more seriously.



 

The OD

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Why the young need to start taking COVID19 a lot more seriously.



'Just a little flu'.

😐
 

Super Caley

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'Just a little flu'.

😐
Sure
Mortality is only part of the story.
But that's the case with just about any disease you care to mention.

Forgive me, but the piece you posted doesn't, as far as I can see, address the question of how likely such long term effects are, especially in the young. It some what misleadingly (to my mind) talks of Covid doing things "uniquely", but then goes on to acknowledge that such long term symptoms are par for the course in viral infections. It doesn't seem to offer any data to challenge the view that accounts of severe consequences in young healthy people are outlier anecdotes to which we should attach only limited significance.

The issue isn't whether or not Covid 19 is a nasty bug or not. All but the more deluded conspiracy theorists accept that it is. The issue is how do we balance our response to it against other bad outcomes.
Put another way;
Not all of the missed/delayed cancer diagnoses (due to the lockdown) will lead to death (in the short term at least) but virtually all are likely to cause a lot of increased morbidity, and for quite some time.
Similarly for all the heart attacks and strokes which were treated either late or not at all, during the lockdown. They too will cast a long shadow of morbidity.
Then there's the psychosocial / developmental delay and even regression which has been inflicted on some (mostly more vulnerably and easily dismissed) kids due to they being regarded as inconvenient vectors of disease and pushed to the margins of society for almost six months. The (difficult to quantify) implications of that may ripple far into the century.
And that's just here in the comfortable developed world. The cost in famine and neglected treatment of children with malaria etc is likely to be enormous.

What I find especially disingenuous is the deliberate attempt by some in authority, to talk up the small risks to the young, and /or shame the young for doing what the young have always done.
What makes us unique as a species is that we interact with people from outside our immediate group. This, arguably more that anything else, is what distinguishes us from chimps and probably even from neanderthals. Presumably the young and healthy have always brought infections home to the elderly and ill. All that's changed is that we have suddenly become hyper aware of it, and this is something we are maybe going to have to come to terms with.
 

The OD

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Sure
Mortality is only part of the story.
But that's the case with just about any disease you care to mention.

Forgive me, but the piece you posted doesn't, as far as I can see, address the question of how likely such long term effects are, especially in the young. It some what misleadingly (to my mind) talks of Covid doing things "uniquely", but then goes on to acknowledge that such long term symptoms are par for the course in viral infections. It doesn't seem to offer any data to challenge the view that accounts of severe consequences in young healthy people are outlier anecdotes to which we should attach only limited significance.

The issue isn't whether or not Covid 19 is a nasty bug or not. All but the more deluded conspiracy theorists accept that it is. The issue is how do we balance our response to it against other bad outcomes.
Put another way;
Not all of the missed/delayed cancer diagnoses (due to the lockdown) will lead to death (in the short term at least) but virtually all are likely to cause a lot of increased morbidity, and for quite some time.
Similarly for all the heart attacks and strokes which were treated either late or not at all, during the lockdown. They too will cast a long shadow of morbidity.
Then there's the psychosocial / developmental delay and even regression which has been inflicted on some (mostly more vulnerably and easily dismissed) kids due to they being regarded as inconvenient vectors of disease and pushed to the margins of society for almost six months. The (difficult to quantify) implications of that may ripple far into the century.
And that's just here in the comfortable developed world. The cost in famine and neglected treatment of children with malaria etc is likely to be enormous.

What I find especially disingenuous is the deliberate attempt by some in authority, to talk up the small risks to the young, and /or shame the young for doing what the young have always done.
What makes us unique as a species is that we interact with people from outside our immediate group. This, arguably more that anything else, is what distinguishes us from chimps and probably even from neanderthals. Presumably the young and healthy have always brought infections home to the elderly and ill. All that's changed is that we have suddenly become hyper aware of it, and this is something we are maybe going to have to come to terms with.
I didn't actually post that piece, I merely responded to Raetsels post with a sarcastic post highlighting the words of President Jair Bolsonoro that this was 'just a little flu'.

However, based on Raetsels posting history and general demeanour, I find him or her (him I think but not 100%) reasonable, calm and insightful and I was only too happy to follow the link and read it for myself so happy to reply and repost.

Clearly, its not just a little flu, its a brand new type of viral infection that is still shrouded in mystery in many ways due to how little time has been had to study it. While some viral infections do indeed have long term symptoms, many do not - the common cold and influenza being the two that spring to mind as being the most prevalent. Clearly some people can and do carry long terms effects but most people do not. I'd say I've had proper flu 2 or 3 times in my life and I am not talking a heavy cold or chest infection, I'm talking extreme fatigue, nausea and vomitting, fever, headaches and severe joint pain. I am not aware of anyone I know in my circle of friends, family and acquaintances who had any long term effects either, but I do know at this stage several recoved Covid 19 sufferers and a high number of them report ongoing symptoms. I'm not saying that this small sample is indicative of anything, but from my experience it does appear far more virulent and disruptive than standard respiratory viral infections - I'm clearly not a virologist or epidemiologist so can only offer a limited layman's assessment of all this but the long term effects do appear to be a concern.

I don't dispute much of what you write above but I do think you might be getting back to the whole 'we have to let it run it course' argument that might make sense if we fully understood this disease but we just do not. Sure, the young, being more adventurous and tending to travel further and interact with more people outside their usual social circle are just doing what the young have always done, but that's hardly an argument to stop people pointing out what appears to selfishness on their part.

Nobody is suggesting young people shouldn't try to continue on with their daily lives where possible, my problem appears to be the innate sense of invulnerability that we all felt at that age being displayed so openly in their inability or unwillingness to social distance, wear masks or consider the more vulnerable.

My take based on my reading of all the experts in this (and taking into account the many outliers, who sadly appear to also believe in pseudo science and fringe theory - not all, but enough to give me pause as to how valuable their inputs are) is that we very well might find ourselves knee deep in the problems you outline above alongside overwhelmed medical services. Perhaps me and those who I am listening to are wrong, but I would prefer to err on the side of caution and see what I can do to help combat this and get us back to some sort of normality. If that means wearing an annoying mask and gloves or constant hand washing or sanitising to the point of dry, crack skin, so be it. The alternative appears to be even worse than previously suspected.

I do also accept though that I am an extremely lucky person in that I am able to do most of my work remotely (not all though, I still need to go to sites but take all necessary precautions doing so) and I am also still fully employed and have suffered no economic hardship, I am able to maintain socially distant contact with many of my family and friends and am married to a mental health professional who knows all sorts of ways to combat stress and anxiety. With that in mind, I have an automatic bias towards the measure put in place but I do recognise that bias.

The main takeaway I have from everything I read is that nobody fully understands what all the long term effects of all this will be, either directly on the physiology of the recovered or societal impacts due to the measure in place but they are just as important so I welcome discussion on those factors also.
 

Super Caley

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I didn't actually post that piece, I merely responded to Raetsels post with a sarcastic post highlighting the words of President Jair Bolsonoro that this was 'just a little flu'.

However, based on Raetsels posting history and general demeanour, I find him or her (him I think but not 100%) reasonable, calm and insightful and I was only too happy to follow the link and read it for myself so happy to reply and repost.

Clearly, its not just a little flu, its a brand new type of viral infection that is still shrouded in mystery in many ways due to how little time has been had to study it. While some viral infections do indeed have long term symptoms, many do not - the common cold and influenza being the two that spring to mind as being the most prevalent. Clearly some people can and do carry long terms effects but most people do not. I'd say I've had proper flu 2 or 3 times in my life and I am not talking a heavy cold or chest infection, I'm talking extreme fatigue, nausea and vomitting, fever, headaches and severe joint pain. I am not aware of anyone I know in my circle of friends, family and acquaintances who had any long term effects either, but I do know at this stage several recoved Covid 19 sufferers and a high number of them report ongoing symptoms. I'm not saying that this small sample is indicative of anything, but from my experience it does appear far more virulent and disruptive than standard respiratory viral infections - I'm clearly not a virologist or epidemiologist so can only offer a limited layman's assessment of all this but the long term effects do appear to be a concern.

I don't dispute much of what you write above but I do think you might be getting back to the whole 'we have to let it run it course' argument that might make sense if we fully understood this disease but we just do not. Sure, the young, being more adventurous and tending to travel further and interact with more people outside their usual social circle are just doing what the young have always done, but that's hardly an argument to stop people pointing out what appears to selfishness on their part.

Nobody is suggesting young people shouldn't try to continue on with their daily lives where possible, my problem appears to be the innate sense of invulnerability that we all felt at that age being displayed so openly in their inability or unwillingness to social distance, wear masks or consider the more vulnerable.

My take based on my reading of all the experts in this (and taking into account the many outliers, who sadly appear to also believe in pseudo science and fringe theory - not all, but enough to give me pause as to how valuable their inputs are) is that we very well might find ourselves knee deep in the problems you outline above alongside overwhelmed medical services. Perhaps me and those who I am listening to are wrong, but I would prefer to err on the side of caution and see what I can do to help combat this and get us back to some sort of normality. If that means wearing an annoying mask and gloves or constant hand washing or sanitising to the point of dry, crack skin, so be it. The alternative appears to be even worse than previously suspected.

I do also accept though that I am an extremely lucky person in that I am able to do most of my work remotely (not all though, I still need to go to sites but take all necessary precautions doing so) and I am also still fully employed and have suffered no economic hardship, I am able to maintain socially distant contact with many of my family and friends and am married to a mental health professional who knows all sorts of ways to combat stress and anxiety. With that in mind, I have an automatic bias towards the measure put in place but I do recognise that bias.

The main takeaway I have from everything I read is that nobody fully understands what all the long term effects of all this will be, either directly on the physiology of the recovered or societal impacts due to the measure in place but they are just as important so I welcome discussion on those factors also.
Apologies (for the misattribution)

Let me clarify. I don't go with the "let it run its course" attitude. I agree, that in the face of a novel unfamiliar threat, erring on the side of caution is certainly the way to go.

(Also, BTW, I regard public health triumphs over conditions such as small pox and polio to be some of humanity's greatest achievements and I have zero time for the argument that doing what needs to be done in order to restrict the spread of disease is not a legitimate business of the state.)

What I'm arguing is that it is becoming evident that, in the difficult choices between various bad outcomes, we are getting the balance wrong here, and talking up one risk (Covid), seemingly to the exclusion of others.

I suppose what doesn't help is that the issue has become caught up with the toxic nature of US politics, where there seems to be room only for polarised extreme positions and any sort of balance is virtually impossible. That's unfortunate, to say the least.

So I wouldn't see myself as being that far removed from your own position, but when all this is over, I suspect that history will judge that most countries over reacted, that places like the US and Brazil under reacted and maybe Sweden is getting it about right.

Time will tell
 

raetsel

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Sure
Mortality is only part of the story.
But that's the case with just about any disease you care to mention.
That's simply not true. The flu for instance is nasty for a week or two, then there is a recovery period which might last several months but its victims do eventually come back to full fitness. It does not cause heart damage or the wide range of longer term ill effects that COVID19.
I'm not arguing for a long term lockdown. I don't think anyone ever suggested such a solution. However it is very clear that many people, and not just the young ,are still not taking this at all seriously. For instance this incurable moron:
Most people in Ireland are still not wearing masks in shops. Pubs in my area are opening and only paying lip service to the guidelines with the result that social distancing has gone out the window. Things are largely back to normal despite the dangers. There was a new cluster discovered last week caused by a collection of fools who had a karaoke party in Limavady Co Derry even though one of them had just returned from England. That is the sort of idiocy that people who are being told that they are at low risk are getting up to. They need to get the message that even though they may not die from this because they are younger, they are still putting their health at long term risk.
In other words, we do need to resume normal economic activity as far as possible, but we also need to recognise the need to stop being stupidly complacent.
 


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