Zero seats for Fianna Fáil?

cashinhand

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I have mentioned this in other threads, but would like feedback.

I do not think it is beyond the realm of possibility that Fianna Fáil will get zero seats in the upcoming election.

As I mentioned elsewhere, and which is again mentioned by another in the letters page of the Irish Times today (see below), the ruling party in Canada went from government to just 2 seats in one election in 1993.

FF will have a lot of difficulty attracting transfers, and with the latest Red C poll putting them at 17% nationally, they could, with no (or very few) transfers, end up with no seats. It wouldn't surprise me if that 17% has fallen further since the reports of cabinet infighting and the backbench revolt in the offing.

Fianna Fáil have been in power for most of the past 50 years, and regardless of what you think of them, surely you can agree it is not healthy in a democracy to have the same party - whatever their stripe - in power practically in perpetuum?

It would be a great day for Ireland, and perhaps a signal that we are finally waking up if FF were truely held accountable for the fiasco we are now experiencing.

FF 0.

******
From Irish Times, 23 November, 2010:

Madam, – In the Canadian Federal election of 1993, the ruling Progressive Conservative Party of the then prime minister Kim Campbell lost more than half of its vote from 1988 and all but two of its 151 seats.
After the disgraceful way in which this Fianna Fáil/Green Government has acted, can we hope that the Irish electorate will, once and for all, follow the example of Canada and consign both Fianna Fáil and the Greens to history by way of a complete clear-out of the parties which have brought so much shame and ignominy on our country and people? – Yours, etc,
CHRISTOPHER O’GRADY,
Collins Court,
Whitehall, Dublin 9.
 


NFD100

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With a bit of luck. Oh no, they'll drag an election out till March of next year and rearrange the chairs on the top deck. Put in some other type of eejit, like Hanafin and pretend they are holier than thou. I can see it coming!
 

LiquidPaddy

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While one could wish for a wipe-out, the usual diehard FF supporters will still vote for them. Sad really, because knowing there's a "core" vote means that they feel they can just do whatever to cling onto power, and even now, they are still not listening to the people. New leader will change nothing, the brand is destroyed by arrogance.
 
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Highking

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They run a first past the post system, so big swings are much more likely.I'd would love it if FF were absolutely trounced in the next elections but realisticly they have a very loyal support base, they won't do as badly as the polls predict.
 

d7bohs

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Canada has a 'first past the post' system.
 

Sync

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It was a silly comment in your other threads as well. Canada, like the US and UK, have a first past the post system. If you'd like to make a bet that Brian Cowen and WOD won't be re-elected if they stand then I'm happy to wager whatever you want.
 

Watcher2

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Wishful thinking I'm afraid. Most of the main cabinet will most likely get back their seat. There is a large section of this society who will vote FF regardless. They will accept the spin and bull that it is not their fault - Lehmans etc.

A lot of people may be surprised how the elction turns out. I was in 2002 and 2007 when all talk on the run uup to the elections was how poorly FF was doing in the polls.
 

Sync

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Wishful thinking I'm afraid. Most of the main cabinet will most likely get back their seat. There is a large section of this society who will vote FF regardless. They will accept the spin and bull that it is not their fault - Lehmans etc.

A lot of people may be surprised how the elction turns out. I was in 2002 and 2007 when all talk on the run uup to the elections was how poorly FF was doing in the polls.
Oh yeah. People's memories are far too short. Even if FF were to drop to say 16% of registered voters support, that core vote is going to show up on election day. Not a doubt in my mind. FG can't say that about their numbers.

Also factor in the liklihood of FG/Lab supporting the budget in order to have a quicker election and if (As I think will happen) Cowen decides to step down prior to the election to allow a new leader emerge, that's going to help their rating as well.

FF administrations have been built on the bones of people who say their core vote is gone.
 

Pat Mc Larnon

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Noel O'Flynn and Chris Andrews were doing their damnedest yesterday to ensure they get relected.
 

Oppenheimer

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Not likely given a) our system of PR (+ some people's lack of understanding of it when voting) and b) the clientelist system where people vote for their mates as opposed to someone who will operate on a national level.

Unfortunately we will see about 40-50 seats given current polling for FF and likely a majority for FG. FG's problem is Kenny - he continues to be a low energy, low dynamic character and their numbers will reflect how well people like him. So hang on for another coalition led by a centrist-right party and no change in the system of governance or policy likely.
 

MPB

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It would not make any difference.

They have been in power that long that the whole place is infested with them.

An election will not change anything. The country needs to be de FFised.

Start with the Civil Service and State and Semi State bodies and work your way down.

The danger is, that this country makes the same mistake it made in the past and decides that all these parasites need is a break from power.

Like all forms of cancer, it needs to be eradicated. For good.

A message for all opposition parties. Do not stop at getting elected, because you will get one chance at this.

The next time we will not decide our Govt by way of election.
 

ellie08

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There's always goms that will vote for them. People who like to get favours in return for their vote - people from the tribe.
 

Barnacle

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A few die hard FF's I know have decided not to actually vote. They say that they just cannot bring themselves to put that tick next to FF but will not vote for FG or Lab either.
 

imokyrok

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Someone said yesterday on the radio that the Irish vote on national issues in local elections and on local issues in national elections. That culture means that the FF TD who gets their constituent the medical card they are not really entitled to and who claims credit for everything from speedbumps to street lighting will still get in. Look at Willie O'Dea. I can't conceive of a more slithery character - the epitome of everything rotten in Irish politics but he'll top the poll in Limerick.
 

bm42

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It's very unlikely that they will get 0 seats, that's not to say it shouldn't be a target, but I'd wager heavily against it happening.
 


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