Zerohedge - "There is not enough money to Bailout Spain"

Cassandra Syndrome

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This begs the question why should we sign our souls away to the IMF when they themselves will need a bailout soon?

Default.

It seems that the European bailout buck will stop with Portugal for one simple reason: when Europe created the EFSF it did not think it would need to serially bail out everyone; now the EFSF does not have enough money to cover a bailout of Spain. From Dow Jones: "The European emergency fund, promoted as having the financial firepower to douse a financial crisis in the euro zone, may not even have enough money to cover a bailout of Spain. "[The fund] will be very close to the line, it will be precarious and it won't leave anything for anybody else," said Whitney Debevoise, a sovereign-debt lawyer with Arnold Porter and former World Bank executive director." Of course, if and when Spain is bailed out, other bail outs will be irrelevant, as at that point the vigilantes will focus squarely on Germany. At that moment, nothing less than a complete dissolution of the currency union and an unmitigated monetization ala Weimar will save what is left of the productive powers remaining in Europe.

From Dow Jones:
It's Official: There Is Not Enough Money To Bail Out Spain | zero hedge
 


oggy

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As you seem to believe you are a living legend on economic and financial matters when do you see the turmoil in Ireland resolved ? Not the way you want it resolved as there is no evidence anyone will have the brains to listen to you but how the clowns present and future will reach resolution
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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As you seem to believe you are a living legend on economic and financial matters when do you see the turmoil in Ireland resolved ? Not the way you want it resolved as there is no evidence anyone will have the brains to listen to you but how the clowns present and future will reach resolution
Well to put it like this, Brian Lucey laughed at you on his twitter page today. So you are a legend for being a complete sycophantic knob.

The turmoil in Ireland gets resolved when we have professionals negotiating a deal for this country. We threaten default and contagion unless the deal is the best outcome for the people.
 

Squire Allworthy

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We threaten default and contagion unless the deal is the best outcome for the people.
+1

You would think that someone in FF would grasp this, but I suppose that is because their culture relies on patronage and negotiating skills are less important than rubbing shoulders with the right contacts.
 

Hazlitt

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Politicians (and their anointed economists being fed from the trough), both in Ireland and Europe, are ignoring the warnings from top independent economists, despite the fact that the dogs on the street KNOW FULL WELL the collapse of the euro is looking more and more inevitable every passing day, mainly due to them not being willing to accept the reality of the situation for political reasons! The euro isn't collapsing on my watch! :mad:

Of course Cass Synd / Zerohedge are completely right. Europe / Ireland does not have the resources available to deal with this crisis, can ONLY make matters worse if they pursue a QE policy path, and the logical thing to do is to DEFAULT.
 

Congalltee

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Would there be any advantage in Spain, Portugal and Ireland, coordinating their approach against Merkel, ECB et al? A well structured debt restructuring, would have to be better than the chaos which will ensue on the disorderly default of anyone of the 3, especially Spain, leading to the collapse of the Euro.

If everyone knows that we will reach the stage of 'can't pay, won't pay' the interest Repayments - just what is the point in
Pursuing our fictional strategy? Where is Alan Ahearne? Is there anyway that government policy can be diverted to reason?
 
D

Dylan2010

default and repudiation of debt , now is as good as it gets. factor in a second wave bear market in equities, and a reversal of a 30 year bond bubble in the US and elsewhere, and you have the financial equivalent of a slow release neutron bomb. The way I see it , interest rates will rise and will rise faster the more central banks carry out QE 3,4 & 5.
There is so much moral hazard baked into the current pie I'd be disappointed if it didnt unravel at some point in the next couple of years.
 

Clanrickard

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cozzy121

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As you seem to believe you are a living legend on economic and financial matters when do you see the turmoil in Ireland resolved ? Not the way you want it resolved as there is no evidence anyone will have the brains to listen to you but how the clowns present and future will reach resolution
Wow, talk about shooting the messenger.
Any chance you might tell us how ff might start about cleansing the shame & financial ruin that they have brought to this country?
 

Expatriot

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We need to take our time here and see what happens. Otherwise we are going to be the one left without a seat when the music stops. As it is the ECB is holding the baby in terms of Irish bank debt. Leave it there another few weeks. A general election is the perfect excuse to sit on our hands for a while. The rush to accept the baby back with a huge loan is a mistake. Please FF do this for us, delay, string them along, do whatever you can and then pull the plug or get the greens to. We must not sign up to anything. If the Euro dies the ECB dies, all bank bonds are then in the bin. Its bad for us, but you would leave the mistakes behind. If take this loan the game is over.

Think about it.
 

Expatriot

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We should default on bank debt immediately. One thing needs to be factored in and that is the pigheaded determination of the eurotrons to keep the euro to advance EU integration.
We should pretend we are all for helping and being good EU members and then do nothing and call an election. Its over to someone else then to sort. We cannot be blamed for this, the PR of it is very important now. There will be alot of rage when the EU collapses.

We must look like the victim not the criminal, we must also have a way of walking away from the wreckage. Leave the bank debt in a vault in the ECB as long as possible.
 

Marbellabound

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We need to take our time here and see what happens. Otherwise we are going to be the one left without a seat when the music stops. As it is the ECB is holding the baby in terms of Irish bank debt. Leave it there another few weeks. A general election is the perfect excuse to sit on our hands for a while. The rush to accept the baby back with a huge loan is a mistake. Please FF do this for us, delay, string them along, do whatever you can and then pull the plug or get the greens to. We must not sign up to anything. If the Euro dies the ECB dies, all bank bonds are then in the bin. Its bad for us, but you would leave the mistakes behind. If take this loan the game is over.

Think about it.
I wouldn't bother posing that question to FF if I were you, they don't listen to anyone, especially the electorate who pay their salaries.

No need for me to think about it, it is the only way to go.
 

H.R. Haldeman

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I am coming to the view that it doesn't matter - I think Angela is going to tell the bond-holders and vigilantes to do one. A great big massive Europe-wide restructuring.
 


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